Mesoscale Discussion 0382
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0520 PM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024
Areas affected...Southeast AR...Northeast LA...Southwest
TN...Northwest MS
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 072220Z - 072345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A couple of supercells may develop by early evening, with
a threat of isolated hail and possibly a tornado or two.
DISCUSSION...Cumulus has been gradually increasing late this
afternoon from eastern AR into northern LA, in advance of a nearly
stationary surface front, with recent attempts at initiation noted.
Diurnal heating of a relatively moist airmass has resulted in MLCAPE
increasing to 1000-1500 J/kg. With generally neutral large-scale
ascent and only weak convergence near the surface boundary, storm
coverage may remain rather isolated, but with favorable deep-layer
shear in place, a couple of supercells could eventually evolve as
storms slowly mature into early evening.
With time, storms will tend to move northeastward out of the
low-level moist axis, so the longevity of any severe threat is
uncertain. However, some threat of isolated hail and locally gusty
winds would accompany any supercells. Modestly favorable low-level
shear/SRH (as noted from the KNQA VWP) could also support some
tornado potential, if robust supercells can be sustained. While the
threat may remain somewhat marginal, watch issuance is possible due
to supercell potential.
..Dean/Hart.. 04/07/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
LAT...LON 33948963 32669094 32149196 32249227 32369260 32669281
32899283 33249262 34659150 34989115 35188994 35208991
35318947 34918936 34258952 33948963