Mesoscale Discussion 0381
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026
Areas affected...parts of central and northeastern Kansas...south
central and southeastern Nebraska and adjacent portions of
northwestern Missouri
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 111856Z - 112130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered strong to severe storm
development is likely to gradually develop through 4-6 PM CDT. This
may include a couple of supercell structures with potential to
produce tornadoes, some severe hail and localized strong surface
gusts.
DISCUSSION...Low-level moistening and insolation are contributing to
boundary-layer destabilization either side of a remnant convective
outflow boundary, which is shifting north of the Interstate 70
corridor toward the central/eastern Nebraska and Kansas state border
vicinity. This appears to be occurring beneath 30-35+ kt southerly
850 mb flow, which may undergo further strengthening through late
afternoon.
Within the better instability to the south of the outflow boundary,
widely scattered thunderstorm development is already initiating
downstream of a northeastward migrating MCV currently to the
east/southeast of Dodge City, with deepening convective development
also evident along the boundary, near Manhattan. With further
insolation and weakening of inhibition, aided by weak large-scale
ascent associated with warm advection, at least widely scattered
intensifying thunderstorm development seems probable through late
afternoon.
Despite somewhat modest flow evident in forecast soundings around
the 500 mb level, sizable clockwise curved low-level hodographs
appear conducive to the development of supercell structures with
potential to produce tornadoes, particularly near and just north of
the retreating outflow boundary, and perhaps in close proximity to
the the MCV. Otherwise, marginally severe hail and localized strong
downbursts may not be out of the question in stronger cells.
..Kerr/Mosier.. 04/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...
LAT...LON 39709929 40459797 40229594 39389552 38769661 37439682
37709872 38679889 39269933 39709929
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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