Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 378

   Mesoscale Discussion 0378
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0232 PM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024

   Areas affected...much of central Oklahoma into far north-central
   Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 061932Z - 062130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe hail/wind threat may develop with any
   storms that manage to mature and sustain themselves ahead of the
   dryline this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Agitated cumulus (albeit with limited vertical
   development) have steadily been increasing in coverage along and
   immediately ahead of a dryline that continues to rapidly mix
   eastward across central OK into far northern TX. Preceding the
   dryline is a boundary layer characterized by shallow moisture, which
   is overspread by a very dry 700-300 mb layer and modest lapse rates
   (i.e. 6-7 C/km range). As such, buoyancy is quite limited, with
   SBCAPE expected to peak somewhere between 500-1000 J/kg. 

   Surface observations show slight veering of the surface winds
   immediately preceding the dryline, which is reducing convergence and
   limiting convective development up to this point. Nonetheless,
   increased convergence and heating ahead of the dryline should
   support isolated thunderstorm development later this afternoon.
   Somewhat curved low-level hodographs with mid-level elongation
   suggests that multicell and transient supercell structures are
   possible with the more sustained storms that are not inhibited by
   mid-level dry air entrainment. These storms could produce a couple
   of instances of severe wind gusts or hail.

   ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 04/06/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34019809 36499795 36969763 37009720 36899670 36339629
               35499612 34539621 33879635 33709671 33659742 34019809