Mesoscale Discussion 0376 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Areas affected...parts of north central Nevada into the Sawtooth Mountains vicinity of south central Idaho Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 041911Z - 042145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...One or two supercells may gradually develop within a narrow pre-frontal corridor, and pose at least some risk for severe hail and wind by 3-5 PM MDT. While the need for a watch is not currently anticipated, trends are being monitored. DISCUSSION...Latest objective analysis suggests that more rapid boundary-layer destabilization is now underway, particularly in a narrow pre-frontal corridor west of Twin Falls toward the Sawtooth Mountains vicinity, west of Sun Valley. This is occurring in response to continuing insolation and low-level warm advection, beneath cool mid-levels which may contribute to mixed-layer CAPE increasing in excess of 500 J/kg within the next few hours. As this occurs, models indicate that frontogenetic forcing for ascent will also strengthen along this corridor, downstream of a developing frontal wave migrating northeastward out of the Great Basin. An area of intensifying thunderstorm development is already ongoing to the southwest of Owyhee NV, and this activity seems to continue to gradually strengthen and organize through 21-23Z, while propagating north-northeastward within a strongly sheared environment beneath an 80-100+ kt south-southwesterly 300 mb jet. With increasing inflow of the destabilizing boundary-layer air, one or two supercell structures may evolve, accompanied by at least some risk for severe hail and locally damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr/Thompson.. 04/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PIH...MSO...BOI...LKN... LAT...LON 44881413 43561430 41031651 41331720 42281650 42961602 43791576 44881413