Mesoscale Discussion 0371
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025
Areas affected...parts of the Pecos Valley and Edwards Plateau into
portions of the Texas South Plains and Northwest Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 030426Z - 030630Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...The initiation of scattered thunderstorm activity posing
increasing potential for severe hail overnight may begin to increase
as early as 1-3 AM CDT.
DISCUSSION...Downstream of a significant short wave perturbation
digging through the Southwest, large-scale ascent, rooted within
lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, appears to be underway. The
environment remains relatively dry, but high based convection
appears to be developing to the northwest and north of the San
Angelo area. Although inhibition remains sizable, based on forecast
soundings, models suggest that the lift, coupled with increasing
elevated moisture return, may begin to contribute to scattered
thunderstorm development by 06-08Z, if not earlier. Given steep
mid-level lapse rates and strong shear in the convective layer, some
of this may begin to pose increasing potential for severe hail
overnight.
..Kerr/Hart.. 04/03/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 30670152 32490157 32759868 31809831 30240011 29580064
30670152
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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