Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 356

   Mesoscale Discussion 0356
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0156 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

   Areas affected...West-central Arkansas into east-central Missouri

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 97...

   Valid 021856Z - 022030Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 97 continues.

   SUMMARY...Storms are currently semi-discrete across
   Arkansas/Missouri. Tornadoes (possibly strong) will remain possible
   along with large/very-large hail and isolated severe gusts.

   DISCUSSION...Slow and steady heating through cirrus/anvil debris has
   allowed MLCAPE to increase to around 1500 J/kg. Storms have shown
   some trends in increasing intensity over the past hour or so.
   Low-level and deep-layer shear remain strong per regional VAD data.
   Local radar velocity data also show some signals of stronger
   mesocyclones with some of the storms. Despite shear vectors largely
   parallel to the line of convection, storms have so far remained
   semi-discrete. So long as this continues, a tornado (potentially
   strong) is possible. Large to very-large hail and isolated severe
   gusts could also occur. With time, increasing storm interactions and
   greater eastward push from the front will promote upscale growth.

   ..Wendt.. 04/02/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

   LAT...LON   35249419 37129280 38269173 38529092 38449023 37569024
               35249235 34529296 34379375 34549418 34729434 35249419 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN