Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 351

   Mesoscale Discussion 0351
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0831 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

   Areas affected...Far northeast Indiana and northern/central Ohio

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 021331Z - 021530Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Small to marginally severe hail will be possible with
   elevated thunderstorms. The eastern/northern extent of the threat
   remains uncertain. A watch is not anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered convection with a few embedded stronger cells
   are being driven by strong low-level warm advection in parts of
   eastern Indiana into central/northern Ohio. Morning observed
   soundings from ILN and ILX suggest these storms are likely on the
   periphery of the steeper mid-level lapse rate plume. Despite cooler
   surface temperatures, adequate elevated buoyancy and strong shear
   could support occasional storm intensification/organization. A few
   of these storms have produced small to marginally severe hail. The
   main question is whether storms will outpace the elevated buoyancy
   and eventually weaken. Given the strengthening surface/850 mb low
   today, there is at least some potential for storms to maintain some
   intensity farther east. A watch is not currently anticipated.

   ..Wendt/Guyer.. 04/02/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...IND...

   LAT...LON   41858408 41878114 41718066 41098065 40458120 40168195
               39848335 39838423 40158498 40798547 41268550 41688483
               41858408 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN