Mesoscale Discussion 0344 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 PM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025 Areas affected...Portions of the Central Plains Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 92... Valid 020403Z - 020600Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 92 continues. SUMMARY...Primary corridor of severe will sag southeast across central/eastern Kansas into northwest Missouri later tonight. DISCUSSION...Surface low has been dislodged off the higher terrain (just northwest of Woodward OK) and will soon begin to eject northeast toward northwest MO, in response to a strong mid-level jet. Downstream, LLJ continues to increase ahead of this feature and 1km flow is now on the order of 60-70kt from central OK into eastern KS. 03z sounding from OUN verifies this with 60kt at 850mb, and 0-3 SRH around 800 m2/s2. Intense low-level warm advection will continue to focus across eastern portions of the central Plains into the lower MO River Valley. Capping remains significant across OK and this likely contributed to the early demise of dryline activity by mid evening. For this reason, frontal convergence, along with warm advection, will be the primary forcing mechanisms for convection through the pre-dawn hours. Latest radar imagery suggests frontal convection continues to mature, and earlier discrete (including a few supercells) convection is becoming more linear with time. Even so, given the strength of the wind fields, embedded supercells may continue as the corridor sags southeast. Hail is expected with the stronger updrafts, and some wind threat may ultimately evolve if bowing structures can mature. Additionally, continued moistening suggests inflow parcels may be near-surface based, which would support a tornado risk with stronger supercells. If sufficient supercells were to emerge from this activity a tornado watch may be warranted. However, at this time a more complex storm mode currently exists. ..Darrow.. 04/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...DDC... LAT...LON 37669948 39229667 40359515 39889433 38599572 37239877 37669948 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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