Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 343

   Mesoscale Discussion 0343
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0856 PM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025

   Areas affected...Southeast Nebraska...Northeast Kansas...Southwest
   Iowa...Northwest Missouri

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 92...

   Valid 020156Z - 020300Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 92
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe threat continues across the eastern portions of the
   central Plains. Hail should be the primary risk.

   DISCUSSION...LLJ is strengthening across eastern OK into eastern KS
   where 1km speeds are now in excess of 50-60kt. Convection has been
   slow to mature along the cold front, but thunderstorms are gradually
   increasing along a zone of low-level confluence from Barton to
   Ottawa County KS. This activity should continue to increase as this
   corridor is shunted southeast into an increasingly moist
   environment.

   A secondary cluster of strong/severe thunderstorms is noted across
   the northwestern portion of ww92. This elevated convection will
   shift east into a zone of strong low-level warm advection and its
   longevity appears likely. Overall, a gradual uptick in frontal
   convection, and elevated warm advection storms, will be noted into
   the early-morning hours.

   With time, some southward expansion of the severe thunderstorm watch
   may be warranted.

   ..Darrow.. 04/02/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

   LAT...LON   38899865 41689747 41699476 38899605 38899865 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN