Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 342

   Mesoscale Discussion 0342
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0822 PM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025

   Areas affected...Portions of southern and central Oklahoma

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 91...

   Valid 020122Z - 020215Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 91 continues.

   SUMMARY...The tornado threat appears to have decreased
   substantially, especially in the near term. Isolated large hail and
   locally severe gusts remain possible with ongoing thunderstorm.

   DISCUSSION...The earlier cluster of splitting supercells has
   devolved into one isolated/weakening storm tracking northeastward
   across south-central OK. This storm appears to have missed a narrow
   window of opportunity for intensification into a dominant
   right-moving supercell -- owing to weak forcing for ascent and
   lingering inhibition (per 00Z OUN sounding). While this storm will
   still pose a risk of isolated large hail and locally severe gusts,
   the tornado threat appears to have decreased substantially --
   especially in the near term. 

   Additional thunderstorm development will be possible during the
   overnight/early morning hours along the front, and any associated
   severe threat will be handled with an additional future watch if
   needed.

   ..Weinman.. 04/02/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34519833 35509814 35879769 35859711 35659668 35229668
               34209726 34189803 34519833 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN