Mesoscale Discussion 0339 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 PM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025 Areas affected...North Central Kansas into Southeast Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 012338Z - 020115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected this evening, hail is the primary risk with this activity; although, there is some risk for a tornado. A watch is being considered for this scenario. DISCUSSION...Low-amplitude short-wave trough is currently ejecting northeast into the central Plains, well ahead of the primary long wave over the western U.S. Surface low is beginning to respond to this feature over southwestern KS, and subsequent movement is expected toward central KS later tonight. Higher PW air mass is gradually advancing north with 50F surface dew points now to the NE border just north of CNK. Latest radar/satellite imagery depict scattered high-based convection ahead of the short wave from southwestern KS to west of Hebron NE. Over the last half hour, or so, updrafts have deepened such that lightning is now occurring with this lead activity over southern NE. LLJ is forecast to increase markedly across eastern KS later this evening which will encourage further moistening and destabilization. Latest thinking is this activity should gradually strengthen as profiles moisten, aided in part by the short wave and surging cold front. While initial convection may be high-based, as dew points rise to near 60F, there is some concern for the possibility of a tornado. Even so, hail should be the main concern. ..Darrow/Mosier.. 04/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... LAT...LON 39019894 40199772 40279649 39569658 38519820 39019894 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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