Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 336

   Mesoscale Discussion 0336
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0317 PM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025

   Areas affected...Western into central Oklahoma and western North
   Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 012017Z - 012215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Cumulus activity is increasing on the dryline in western
   Oklahoma. This area is being monitored for storm initiation.
   Supercells capable of large/very-large hail, tornadoes (possibly
   strong), and severe gusts are possible.

   DISCUSSION...Moisture return continues in the southern Plains this
   afternoon. Low 60s F dewpoints have reached the Red River/southern
   Oklahoma. Mid 60s F dewpoints lag farther south in the DFW
   Metroplex. Cumulus have become more numerous in southwest Oklahoma
   and recent Day Cloud Phase satellite imagery shows a few towers
   occasionally deepening. While this activity is currently developing
   within upper 50s F dewpoints, greater moisture resides to the east.

   Storm initiation timing is a bit uncertain, especially given the
   filtered insolation through a cirrus canopy. However, most guidance
   has shown initiation after 22-23Z. Storm coverage remains a
   question. These uncertainties are primarily driven by the
   late-arriving moisture return. Mid-level ascent will remain quite
   modest until after dark. However, the wind profile strongly supports
   discrete supercells with an attendant risk for large/very-large hail
   and tornadoes. A strong tornado is certainly possible in this
   environment and would become more likely if a mature storm moves
   into increasing low-level moisture to the east. Low-level theta-e
   advection should slow/offset the increase in nocturnal CIN.

   Once there is more clarity on initiation timing and storm coverage,
   a watch will be needed later this afternoon/early evening.

   ..Wendt/Smith.. 04/01/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35289729 33809795 33509873 33569950 33669990 34099982
               34569970 35389946 36799922 36939853 36939788 36489750
               35289729 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN