Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 335

   Mesoscale Discussion 0335
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0300 PM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025

   Areas affected...Southern Nebraska into central Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 012000Z - 012230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Initial thunderstorm development is anticipated across
   northwest Kansas in the next 1-2 hours. The severe threat associated
   with these storms will increase as they move into central Kansas and
   south-central Nebraska. Watch issuance is probable by early evening
   for parts of the area.

   DISCUSSION...GOES visible imagery shows building, high-based cumulus
   developing along/just behind the dryline in northwest Kansas. Based
   on current temperature/dewpoint observations and recent forecast
   soundings, this convection will likely remain somewhat shallow with
   limited buoyancy (around 250 MUCAPE). However, very dry
   boundary-layer conditions may promote sporadic strong downburst
   winds with this initial convection. With time, this activity is
   expected to spread east and impinge on a theta-e axis building
   downstream across north-central KS into south-central NE. This will
   promote intensification with an attendant increase in severe wind
   and large hail potential as the deepening convection begins to be
   influenced by strong mid/upper-level flow. A supercell or two may
   emerge from this activity later this evening and could pose a
   large/very-large hail threat. The tornado threat associated with any
   established supercells is expected to remain limited until later
   this evening when richer moisture returns into the region. Watch
   issuance is probable by early evening to address these concerns.

   ..Moore/Smith.. 04/01/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   40580004 40639915 40509858 40229806 39849765 39369751
               38969757 38499783 38359832 38339885 38429937 38569976
               38669985 39049999 39580053 39780087 40180102 40470075
               40580004 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN