Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 334

   Mesoscale Discussion 0334
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0627 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern North Carolina and far
   southeastern Virginia

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 90...

   Valid 312327Z - 010100Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 90
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The risk of severe wind gusts (generally around 60 mph)
   continues to increase across portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch
   90.

   DISCUSSION...Radar data from KRAX depicts recent intensification of
   a north/south-oriented line segment tracking east-northeastward at
   around 30 kt. The inflow for these storms is characterized by
   middle/upper 70s temperatures and lower 60s dewpoints beneath modest
   midlevel lapse rates (MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg). This, combined with
   around 40 kt of 0-6 km shear (per RAX VWP data), should support a
   continued risk of severe wind gusts (generally around 60 mph), given
   the linear mode/established cold pool. Trends are also being
   monitored for a possible downstream watch into southeastern
   Virginia.

   ..Weinman/Mosier.. 03/31/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

   LAT...LON   35577870 36317851 36877802 36977757 36917713 36697684
               35857714 35417769 35407835 35577870 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN