Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 332

   Mesoscale Discussion 0332
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0536 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

   Areas affected...South-Central Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 312236Z - 010030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Hail may be noted with very isolated storms that develop
   across south central Texas early this evening. Severe thunderstorm
   watch does not appear warranted.

   DISCUSSION...Low-amplitude short-wave trough is digging
   east-southeast across far West TX early this evening. This feature
   is approaching the back edge of higher PW air mass that has been
   shunted into south central TX. Latest diagnostic data suggests the
   boundary is draped across the San Antonio metro to north of Hondo.
   Surface temperatures have warmed well into the 90s south of the
   front and convective temperatures have been breached along this zone
   of low-level confluence. As a result, a few thunderstorms have
   recently developed and there is adequate deep-layer flow for
   sustaining robust updrafts. Latest radar data suggests hail is
   likely occurring with this activity and this may continue for the
   next few hours, possibly sagging south before nocturnal cooling
   contributes to weakening updrafts. A severe thunderstorm watch does
   not appear warranted.

   ..Darrow/Mosier.. 03/31/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EWX...

   LAT...LON   29799920 29649846 28799857 28759928 29519969 29799920 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN