Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 33

   Mesoscale Discussion 0033
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0517 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

   Areas affected...portions of Upstate New York

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 222317Z - 230315Z

   SUMMARY...Heavy lake effect snow band to persist with potential for
   rates 1-2"/hr through the evening.

   DISCUSSION...A band of lake effect snow continues along and east of
   Lake Ontario across portions of the Tug Hill Plateau. Heavy snow has
   been reported within this band periodically through the afternoon in
   Watertown and Fort Drum, with visibility <1/4 mi at times. This band
   has also produced occasional lightning. Westerly surface flow is
   providing optimal long fetch axis across Lake Ontario amid steep
   lapse rates (7-8 C/km at 0-3 km). In addition, a mid-level trough
   across Canada is shifting southward, with very cool air aloft and
   forcing for ascent overspreading the region. Hi-res guidance
   suggests that rates will increase through the evening, with
   potential for 1-2"/hr rates. This band will likely persist through
   the overnight, with some north/south shift possible.

   ..Thornton.. 01/22/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BUF...

   LAT...LON   43747683 44177596 44337571 44407497 44327414 44047412
               43767484 43587593 43667654 43747683