Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 327

   Mesoscale Discussion 0327
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1254 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

   Areas affected...Southern Georgia into North Florida

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 88...

   Valid 311754Z - 312000Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 88
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Damaging wind potential will likely continue into more of
   southern Georgia and North Florida. An additional severe
   thunderstorm watch for parts of these areas is probable this
   afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...With surface temperatures ahead of the ongoing
   convective line reaching the low 80s F, MLCAPE has risen to around
   2000 J/kg. As the line progresses east, the expectation is for
   continued damaging gust potential into southeast Georgia and North
   Florida. There will be some waning influence of the upper-level
   trough and shear will remain greater to the north/west. This makes
   the intensity of the line somewhat uncertain with eastward extent. A
   severe thunderstorm watch will most likely be considered for
   portions of southeast Georgia and North Florida.

   Regarding a QLCS tornado threat, KEOX data suggest that there were
   two brief TDS in far southeastern Alabama. Regional VAD data
   continue to show limited low-level hodograph curvature. Trends in
   the convective line and the environment continue to suggest the
   possibility of the QLCS tornado, though any circulation should be
   brief.

   ..Wendt.. 03/31/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...

   LAT...LON   30228592 31408544 31858514 31858451 31718208 31578148
               31128153 30228149 29808233 30228592 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH