Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 325

   Mesoscale Discussion 0325
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0834 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

   Areas affected...Portions of western/central Georgia and the Florida
   Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 311334Z - 311530Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds will continue into Georgia
   and the central/eastern Florida Panhandle. A less certain and
   conditional tornado threat will also exist. A watch is likely this
   morning.

   DISCUSSION...Modest surface heating is ongoing in parts of
   central/southwestern Georgia where cloud cover has been more broken.
   These areas have seen temperatures rise into the low 70s F this
   morning. At least muted surface heating can be expected into the
   afternoon. Observed 12Z soundings from Birmingham/Atlanta show steep
   mid-level lapse rates, but also subsidence in the wake of a weaker
   lead shortwave/MCV. With an upstream shortwave trough now entering
   the Ozarks/Mid-South, additional mid-level ascent should promote
   more favorable thermodynamic profiles with time. Current VAD data
   from the region also shows relatively weak low-level flow. Again, as
   the trough moves into the Southeast, an increase in 850 mb winds is
   expected to occur. Overall, the primary severe threat should remain
   damaging winds. The tornado threat is less certain as, even with an
   increase in low-level winds, forecast hodographs still are rather
   marginal. Nonetheless, a few QLCS tornadoes or perhaps even a
   warm-advection-driven supercell tornado ahead of the line are still
   possible. A watch will likely be needed this morning as activity
   currently in Alabama and southern Mississippi continues east.

   ..Wendt/Smith.. 03/31/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...

   LAT...LON   31048593 33328503 34118497 34588476 34698430 34488371
               33598281 31908309 30498418 29818459 29518518 29718592
               30418632 31048593 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN