Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 324

   Mesoscale Discussion 0324
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0616 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

   Areas affected...central/southern MS into southeast LA

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 83...84...

   Valid 311116Z - 311245Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 83, 84
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A line of convection will continue shifting east/southeast
   across central/southern Mississippi and southeast Louisiana this
   morning, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts.

   DISCUSSION...A robust line of convection, with embedded bowing
   elements, will continue to shift east/southeast across the MCD area
   this morning. A recent gust of at least 65 mph was noted at KJAN
   with the northern bowing segment. A couple of intense bowing
   segments have occasionally been noted across parts of south-central
   LA. This activity is expected to continue producing severe/damaging
   gusts with eastward extent through the morning given favorable
   downstream instability and an increasing 850 mb southwesterly
   low-level jet. Regional VWP data do indicated some modestly enlarged
   low-level hodographs. However, 0-1 km shear is fairly weak, around
   15-25 kt amid poor low-level lapse rates. This should temper the
   tornado risk, though a brief spin-up could occur given the very
   moist boundary layer and at least modest low-level instability.

   ..Leitman.. 03/31/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   32658950 32408861 31588825 30948834 30178872 29688957
               29599086 29659207 29739249 29929270 30119277 30309262
               30839183 31689072 32658950 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN