Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 324

   Mesoscale Discussion 0324
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0557 PM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026

   Areas affected...middle/upper Ohio Valley

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 85...

   Valid 012257Z - 020030Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 85
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A gradual weakening trend is anticipated this evening
   across WW0085, but at least some risk for strong to occasionally
   damaging wind gusts and isolated severe hail is expected for another
   hour or so.

   DISCUSSION...Ongoing convective activity within WW85 is noted
   along/near the Ohio River. Expectation is for this activity to
   gradually weaken with time this evening as nocturnal boundary layer
   stabilization increases low-level inhibition. However, 500-1000 J/kg
   MLCAPE and around 30 kts of effective bulk shear (per latest
   mesoanalysis) should continue to support at least some threat for
   strong to occasionally damaging winds and isolated large hail over
   the next hour or so. The greatest short term risk appears to be
   associated with a stronger storm cluster currently located across
   northwestern West Virginia. A new watch is not anticipated at this
   time; however, a local extension may be needed should a stronger
   storm or two persist past the scheduled expiration of WW85 at 00Z.

   ..Chalmers.. 04/01/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

   LAT...LON   37888179 37838289 37928356 38098396 38228404 38418392
               38698318 39188187 39478091 39688019 39707917 39507897
               38877920 38537943 38297986 38108050 37888179 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN