Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 323

   Mesoscale Discussion 0323
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0555 PM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026

   Areas affected...Southwestern Oklahoma

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 86...

   Valid 012255Z - 020100Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 86 continues.

   SUMMARY...The tornado risk will increase over the next couple hours
   in southwestern Oklahoma -- within Tornado Watch #86.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms is evolving/strengthening
   near the triple point around Childress TX -- where several severe
   gusts have recently been measured. Over the next couple hours, these
   storms, and additional developing storms along its northern/eastern
   flank, should continue to intensify as they move into a warm/moist
   boundary layer and steep deep-layer lapse rates (around 2000 J/kg
   MLCAPE). Clockwise-curved hodographs will increase in size (250+
   m2/s2 effective SRH) as the nocturnal low-level jet strengthens over
   the next couple hours, favoring intensifying low-level
   mesocyclones/right-movers. As a result, the tornado risk (some
   strong) will increase into southwestern OK over the next couple
   hours, along with the potential for very large hail and severe wind
   gusts.

   ..Weinman.. 04/01/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34499963 34709994 35079993 35359978 35629946 35759902
               35639862 35209835 34799846 34489899 34499963 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN