Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 322

   Mesoscale Discussion 0322
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0525 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

   Areas affected...southeast MS into southern AL and the western FL
   Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 311025Z - 311200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential will increase over the next
   couple of hours. Watch issuance is likely.

   DISCUSSION...A consolidating line of convection with a few embedded
   bowing segments will continue to shift east across southern MS and
   southeast LA. This activity is expected to the move across portions
   of southern AL into the western FL Panhandle this morning into
   midday, maintained by favorable vertical shear and moderate
   instability. Recent radar trends have shown periodic intense bows
   with line-embedded cells, posing a risk for damaging gusts. This
   trend should continue with eastward extent into the MCD area. Storm
   mode may limit hail potential, though isolated hail to around 1 inch
   diameter is possible. Regional VWP data shows modest 0-1 km shear,
   and given some boundary-layer inhibition and poor low-level lapse
   rates, tornado potential while non-zero, is expected to remain low.
   A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed in the next hour
   or so as the line of convection to the west approaches the eastern
   bounds of WW 83 and WW 84.

   ..Leitman.. 03/31/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   30948984 32178811 32098700 31768645 30908642 30098694
               29818843 29888928 30458974 30948984 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN