Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 321

   Mesoscale Discussion 0321
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0221 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

   Areas affected...portions of Middle and eastern
   Tennessee...northeast Mississippi...northern and central
   Alabama...and northwest Georgia

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 78...81...82...

   Valid 310721Z - 310915Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 78, 81, 82 continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for damaging gusts and
   perhaps a tornado or two will continue eastward over the next few
   hours. Downstream watch issuance will likely be needed for parts of
   the region.

   DISCUSSION...The line of severe storms over Middle Tennessee is
   expected to move into Tornado Watch 82 by/near 08z, allowing Tornado
   Watch 78 to expire on time. Tracking ongoing convection over
   northeast MS/northwest AL, this activity also should be close to the
   edge of Tornado Watch 81 near its expiration time of 10z. A new
   watch will likely be needed to cover portions of northeast MS into
   northern AL/northwest GA as additional storm development across
   northern MS/AL is expected, and as ongoing storms shift east the
   remainder of the night. 

   Sufficient instability and strong deep-layer flow will sustain
   strong to severe convection through the overnight hours. Special 06z
   RAOB from JAN indicates some mild inhibition in the 850-700 mb
   layer. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates and supercell wind
   profiles suggest some continued risk is possible into early morning.
   Tornado potential may be limited by stronger low-level inhibition
   and more modest 0-1 km shear. A new severe thunderstorm watch may be
   needed in the next 1-2 hours to replace portions of Tornado Watch
   81, and to include points downstream across northern and central AL
   into northwest GA.

   ..Leitman/Gleason.. 03/31/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   36048534 36148448 35818396 35128401 34508448 33618560
               33108652 32938733 33078818 33768846 34188863 34518867
               34718863 35028838 36048534 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN