Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 319

   Mesoscale Discussion 0319
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1239 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

   Areas affected...portions of eastern TX...northern LA...western
   MS...far southeast AR

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 310539Z - 310745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Continued/developing severe thunderstorm potential is
   uncertain. Trends are being monitored for possible watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are developing along the surface
   cold front draped across southeast AR into east TX. An additional
   cluster of storms continued across east TX to near the Sabine River
   in western LA. While the airmass ahead of these areas of convection
   remain unstable, large-scale ascent continues to shift northeast of
   the region. Only modest convergence along the front is noted in weak
   surface wind observations across MS/LA. A lack of stronger forcing
   may limit overall severe potential. However, favorable vertical
   shear and MLCAPE values at or above 1500 J/kg amid steep midlevel
   lapse rates could support severe storms, mainly capable of large
   hail and perhaps strong gusts. Trends will be monitored for possible
   watch issuance.

   ..Leitman/Gleason.. 03/31/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   32139497 33519150 33379051 32839035 31789061 31059137
               30819232 30759378 30969431 31459484 31689507 32139497 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN