Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 318

   Mesoscale Discussion 0318
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1129 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

   Areas affected...Eastern Tennessee...Far Western North Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 310429Z - 310515Z

   CORRECTED FOR STATE REFERENCE

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to develop over the next few
   hours across eastern Tennessee. The threat may also affect far
   western North Carolina. Wind damage will become likely as a line of
   severe storms moves in from the west. A tornado threat will also be
   possible with intense cells within the line. Weather watch issuance
   will be needed as the line approaches from the west.

   DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a well-developed
   severe MCS located from southern Kentucky southwestward into western
   Tennessee. Ahead of the line, surface dewpoints across middle and
   eastern Tennessee are in the lower 60s F, and RAP analysis shows
   MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. The MCS is being supported by
   a shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery, which is moving
   into the Tennessee Valley. In addition to the instability, the
   Morristown, Tennessee WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear around 50 knots,
   with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 300 m2/s2. This shear
   environment will support a severe threat. Wind damage and tornadoes
   will be the primary threats along the more intense parts of the
   line.

   ..Broyles/Mosier.. 03/31/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...OHX...HUN...

   LAT...LON   34958601 34938460 34968354 35238305 36108267 36508302
               36588360 36578465 36288558 35868618 35608641 35408648
               35258648 35098641 34958601 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN