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Mesoscale Discussion 0316
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1033 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025
Areas affected...Northern Mississippi...Northwest Alabama
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 310333Z - 310600Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to develop across part of
northern Mississippi and northwest Alabama over the next few hour.
An isolated tornado and wind-damage threat will be the primary
threats. Weather watch issuance appears likely.
DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a well-developed
MCS located over western Kentucky and western Tennessee. The severe
MCS is located near the northern edge of a moderately unstable
airmass, where the RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg
range. The MCS is being supported by large-scale ascent associated
with a distinct vorticity maxima and shortwave trough that is moving
through the Tennessee Valley, evident on water vapor imagery. In
addition to the moderate instability, strong deep-layer shear is
evident on the Nashville WSR-88D VWP with 0-6 km shear around 50
knots. The VWP also has strong speed and directional shear in the
boundary layer. This will support a continued severe threat with the
line. Short-term model forecasts move the southern end of the line
east-southeastward across northern Mississippi and into northwest
Alabama over the next few hours. The line will likely be accompanied
by damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat.
..Broyles/Mosier.. 03/31/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...
LAT...LON 34468668 33958715 33518820 33088971 33079049 33219086
33509109 33899103 34359073 34779016 34958928 34968780
34868688 34468668
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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