Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 311

   Mesoscale Discussion 0311
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0435 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

   Areas affected...New York - Northern Pennsylvania

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 79...

   Valid 312135Z - 312330Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 79
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms will spread east
   across ww079 this evening. Large hail and damaging winds remain the
   primary concern.

   DISCUSSION...Several thunderstorm clusters, including a few
   supercells, have developed well ahead of the primary low-amplitude
   short-wave trough currently advancing across the Ohio Valley. Most
   buoyant air mass is holding across the southwestern half of the
   watch where MUCAPE is approaching 1000 J/kg; however, instability is
   considerably weaker downstream across the Hudson Valley and this
   will likely contribute to gradual weakening along the leading edge
   as the convection begins to spread east of the watch over the next
   few hours. Until then, large hail and damaging winds may accompany
   the more robust updrafts, especially across the southern half of the
   watch.

   ..Darrow.. 03/31/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...CLE...

   LAT...LON   43147971 43187455 41877453 41867974 43147971 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN