Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 295

   Mesoscale Discussion 0295
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0758 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

   Areas affected...portions of far eastern Kansas into northern
   Missouri and far southern Iowa

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 270058Z - 270300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An increase in thunderstorm coverage is expected over the
   next few hours to the north of a surface cold front currently
   analyzed across portions of northern/central Missouri, with
   marginally severe hail possible. Watch issuance is not expected at
   this time.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development is ongoing across portions of
   far southern Iowa, with a recent uptick in lightning activity noted.
   Additional activity is expected to expand southwestward into
   portions of northern/central Missouri and eastern Kansas over the
   next few hours as modest mid-level ascent overspreading the frontal
   zone erodes a lingering mid-level warm layer evident in the 00Z TOP
   sounding near 600-650 mb. This is supporting 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE
   per latest mesoanalysis. Modestly steep mid-level lapse rates around
   6.5-7 C/km and effective bulk shear of 35-45 kts may support some
   potential for isolated severe hail, particularly with any stronger
   cores that can become better established. Narrow buoyancy profiles
   and limited instability within the hail growth zone should temper
   the overall threat, however.

   ..Chalmers/Guyer.. 03/27/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   39759496 40049454 40399390 40889320 41129264 41109225
               40909192 40439160 39979140 39439132 38869153 38509199
               38199293 38059345 37939396 37939450 38049499 38259534
               38609551 39059539 39449518 39759496 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN