Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 292

   Mesoscale Discussion 0292
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0325 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

   Areas affected...much of Ohio into western Pennsylvania

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 262025Z - 262200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Gradual convective development should support an
   increasing risk for supercells late this afternoon into this
   evening. Hail, damaging gusts are likely, with a couple of tornadoes
   possible.

   DISCUSSION...Afternoon visible and radar imagery showed an area of
   showers and weak convection gradually intensifying across southern
   Lower MI into northwestern OH. Located along and south of a
   front/lake breeze intersection, warming and moistening of the air
   mass across much of OH and PA this afternoon has resulted in weak to
   moderate buoyancy. Area VADs show very strong mid-level flow with
   elongated and veering hodographs. This will favor a mix of
   supercells and linear segments as the primary storm mode. Given the
   sufficient buoyancy and strong low/deep-layer shear, hail and severe
   gusts are likely. Tornadoes are also possible given ESRH of 300-400
   m2/s2. Additional vertical vorticity near the lake breeze boundary
   could also support a locally greater tornado risk given favorable
   storm motions parallel to the lake shore.

   Recent CAM guidance and satellite trends regarding the ongoing
   shallow convection/showers over northwest OH and Lower MI show them 
   gradually deepening as continued heating and mid-level ascent erode
   inhibition. This should support an increase in the severe risk late
   this afternoon into the evening. A Tornado Watch will likely be
   needed.

   ..Lyons/Smith.. 03/26/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...

   LAT...LON   41748249 42038144 42058046 41617949 41077934 40447956
               39768013 39258145 39148316 39458405 39838433 40468450
               41188445 41648424 41758388 41768347 41748249 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN