Mesoscale Discussion 0285
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026
Areas affected...Southeast IL...southern/central IN...and
southwest/central OH
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 222050Z - 222315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...The potential for severe storms capable of producing
severe hail and locally damaging gusts should increase later this
afternoon into the evening. While timing is uncertain, a watch may
eventually be needed for parts of the area.
DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows an ENE/WSW-oriented
cold front moving quickly southward across central OH, IN, and IL.
While surface temperatures have warmed into the middle/upper 80s
amid middle/upper 50s to near 60 dewpoints ahead of the front, the
latest ACARS soundings suggest that the low-levels remain relatively
dry, and a lack of pre-frontal boundary-layer cumulus also confirms
this. As a result, confidence in surface-based storm development
ahead of the front is low. The one exception is in eastern/central
OH, where isolated thunderstorms are evolving along the front and
could pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds over the next
hour or two. Nevertheless, as large-scale ascent preceding a
midlevel wave overspreads the region later this afternoon into the
evening, anafrontal convection is expected westward into western OH,
southern/central IN, and southeastern IL. A plume of steep midlevel
lapse rates atop the frontal surface and around 50 kt of effective
shear should still support storm organization.
Severe hail will be possible with any elevated supercells that can
evolve, especially in the earlier stages of convective development.
However, deep-layer westerly flow may tend to promote upscale growth
into clusters/lines. While the expected elevated nature of these
storms casts uncertainty on the damaging-wind risk, the steep lapse
rates and antecedent heating of the pre-convective boundary layer
could support damaging winds with the upscale-growing activity.
While timing of storm initiation is a bit uncertain, a watch may
eventually be needed for parts of the area.
..Weinman/Mosier.. 03/22/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...
ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 38918901 39358897 39698852 39958788 40278651 40518445
40618321 40488267 40378241 39998216 39448213 39118241
38868299 38638401 38438507 38278620 38088778 38188825
38488879 38918901
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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