Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 282

   Mesoscale Discussion 0282
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0955 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

   Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic region

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 71...

   Valid 170255Z - 170500Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 71
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Damaging winds remain likely over the next hour across
   parts of the Mid-Atlantic, but a gradual weakening trend is expected
   as a squall line moves into a more stable air mass.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered reports of wind damage continue to filter in
   as a shallow squall line pushes east across the Mid-Atlantic region.
   Although most of this line will soon move offshore in the coming
   hour or so, the northern portion of the line will continue to move
   into NJ and perhaps far southern NY in the next few hours. Based on
   recent velocity data and surface observations, damaging winds will
   remain likely roughly over the next hour. With time, this band will
   move into a cooler/drier air mass where temperatures are only in the
   upper 50s (with pockets of low 60s). Based on the recent 00z OKX
   RAOB and recent forecast soundings, these temperatures (coupled with
   dewpoints in the low 50s) may be sufficiently cool to modulate
   downward momentum flux to the surface within the convective
   downdrafts. That said, the KOKX VWP continues to sample 70 knot
   winds within the lowest 0.5 km, so an isolated damaging wind threat
   may persist into southern NY as the line gradually weakens.
   Confidence in the persistence of the damaging wind threat beyond the
   next 1-2 hours is limited given the overall degradation of buoyancy
   with northeastward extent; downstream watch issuance is not
   expected.

   ..Moore.. 03/17/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...

   LAT...LON   38007563 38877564 39687561 41087545 41337523 41557442
               41537402 41387357 41197321 40847303 40667305 40587336
               40467369 40267380 39977389 39657400 39147445 38717478
               38347496 38017510 37867521 37877539 37897550 38007563 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH