Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 279

   Mesoscale Discussion 0279
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0725 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

   Areas affected...Southern Minnesota...far northwest...Iowa...and far
   northeast Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 290025Z - 290230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple strong to severe storms capable of producing
   locally damaging wind gusts (around 60 mph) and marginally severe
   hail (around 1 inch) are possible through around 03Z.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are evolving along a
   northeast/southwest-oriented cold front extending from southern MN
   into far northeast IA and northeast NE. Earlier diurnal heating
   beneath an EML plume has resulted in steep deep-layer lapse rates
   and around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE along the front. While instability is
   marginal, 30-40 kt of effective shear oriented parallel/oblique to
   the surface front will support small, loosely organized clusters
   capable of producing locally damaging winds gusts (around 60 mph)
   and marginally severe hail (around 1 inch) for the next few hours.
   Given the flow orientation to the southeastward-moving cold front,
   there may be a tendency for upscale growth into a line, before being
   undercut by the front. Therefore, any severe risk is expected to
   remain fairly brief (through around 02-03Z).

   ..Weinman/Mosier.. 03/29/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

   LAT...LON   42769743 43589589 44159453 44619270 44539214 44099222
               43649401 43249506 42339688 42489738 42769743 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN