Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 277

   Mesoscale Discussion 0277
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0531 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

   Areas affected...East Texas...Western Louisiana

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 66...

   Valid 282231Z - 290030Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 66 continues.

   SUMMARY...An isolated tornado and wind-damage threat will likely
   continue for another hour or two. After the 00Z expiration of WW 66,
   a lingering severe threat will be possible, which could necessitate
   a local weather watch extension.

   DISCUSSION...The latest satellite imagery and RAP analysis show a
   mid-level trough over the central Texas, with several vorticity
   maxima located from east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley.
   Large-scale ascent associated with the vorticity maxima will
   continue to support scattered thunderstorm development across the
   Sabine River Valley early this evening. The RAP is analyzing an axis
   of instability over far east Texas where SBCAPE is estimated around
   1000 J/kg range. In addition, the RAP is showing a low to mid-level
   jet over western and central Louisiana. This feature appears to be
   sampled by the Lake Charles and Shreveport WSR-88D VWPs which have
   30 to 35 knots of 0-6 km shear and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
   around 250 m2/s2. This environment should support an isolated
   tornado threat with supercells over the next one to two hours. Any
   supercell could also be capable of producing isolated severe gusts.

   ..Broyles.. 03/28/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

   LAT...LON   30119472 29959432 29989359 30189326 30549308 31759315
               32569330 32899350 32959393 32789427 32389451 31779469
               31009480 30429484 30119472 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH