Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 276

   Mesoscale Discussion 0276
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0327 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of east TX/western LA

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 66...

   Valid 282027Z - 282200Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 66 continues.

   SUMMARY...Some threat for a tornado or two and locally damaging
   gusts may persist through the remainder of the afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...One small but long-lived supercell has shown signs of
   weakening to the southeast of Shreveport, with other transient
   supercells noted from east TX into far western LA over the last 1-2
   hours. While most of these cells have apparently remained sub-severe
   thus far, the KSHV/KPOE/KLCH VWPs continue to depict rather strong
   southerly low-level flow and modestly favorable 0-1 km shear/SRH for
   at least a low probability tornado/wind threat. However, generally
   weak midlevel lapse rates and only relatively modest deep-layer
   shear could continue to limit storm organization to some extent. A
   tornado or two and/or localized damaging gusts remain possible with
   the ongoing storm cluster near the Sabine River through the
   remainder of the afternoon, and some threat could extend just north
   of WW 66.

   Farther southwest, some increase in low-level flow has been noted on
   the KHGX VWP, and deep convection continues to increase immediately
   in advance of a midlevel vorticity maximum approaching east-central
   TX. A modest increase in storm organization across this area could
   result in a threat for locally damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado
   in and near the southwestern portion of WW 66 through the remainder
   of the afternoon.

   ..Dean.. 03/28/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

   LAT...LON   29959320 29679352 29429455 28799549 29409535 29619534
               29869552 30419509 31179471 31919466 32489445 33049429
               32949334 32479323 32049313 31539302 30999292 30509303
               29959320 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH