Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 276

   Mesoscale Discussion 0276
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0100 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

   Areas affected...southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 67...69...

   Valid 161800Z - 161930Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 67, 69 continues.

   SUMMARY...The greatest severe threat within watch 67 and the
   northern portion of watch 69 will be across southeast Virginia and
   northeast North Carolina over the next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...Within a broader environment that has been mostly
   convectively overturned, a more favorable zone remains across
   northeast North Carolina and southeast Virginia. Temperatures are in
   the upper 60s to low 70s with dewpoints in the mid 60s. This yields
   around 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE per SPC mesoanalysis. The AKQ VWP shows
   around 55 knots of deep-layer shear with mid-level flow continuing
   to strengthen through the afternoon.

   With somewhat more favorable thermodynamics in this zone, a few
   supercells capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or
   two are possible.

   ..Bentley/Thompson.. 03/16/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

   LAT...LON   36507810 37007808 37607737 37637654 37217603 36687572
               36207555 35937583 35927681 35927773 36087810 36507810 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN