Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 275

   Mesoscale Discussion 0275
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0202 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of the middle/upper Texas Coast

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 281902Z - 282030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Locally damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado could
   accompany storms near the middle/upper Texas coast this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...A small storm cluster has evolved early this afternoon
   near the middle TX coast, immediately in advance of a midlevel
   vorticity maximum embedded within a larger mid/upper trough over
   central/south TX. Modest diurnal heating has allowed MLCAPE to rise
   near 1000 J/kg downstream of this cluster, with some development of
   deep convection also noted closer to Galveston Bay. 

   While flow in the lowest 3 km has weakened somewhat compared to this
   morning (as noted on the KHGX VWP), modestly favorable low-level
   shear/SRH remains in place across the region. The ongoing storm
   cluster earlier produced a 55 mph gust, and strong to isolated
   severe gusts will remain possible through the afternoon before this
   cluster moves offshore, and a brief tornado also cannot be ruled
   out.

   ..Dean/Smith.. 03/28/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...HGX...

   LAT...LON   29459599 29919504 29899457 29829437 29459443 29219450
               29099470 28809530 28519578 28409606 28379634 28539630
               29459599 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH