Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 274

   Mesoscale Discussion 0274
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1207 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of east TX/western LA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 281707Z - 281830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Some increase in the tornado threat is expected this
   afternoon. Tornado Watch issuance is possible.

   DISCUSSION...A small supercell has evolved late this morning across
   Newton County, TX, with additional redevelopment noted to the
   east/northeast of Houston. Temperatures have warmed into the mid 70s
   F across western LA, and similar warming will be possible this
   afternoon across southeast TX outside of ongoing convective
   development. This warming will allow MLCAPE to approach 1000 J/kg. 

   Meanwhile, low-level flow remains rather strong on area VWPs, with
   backed surface winds supporting 0-1 km SRH of 150-200 m2/s2. With
   continued destabilization, the favorable low-level SRH will support
   some increase in the tornado threat into the afternoon, both with
   the ongoing supercell, and with additional supercellular development
   that may evolve out of ongoing convection across southeast TX. Given
   the potential for a couple tornadoes within a focused mesoscale
   corridor, Tornado Watch issuance is possible early this afternoon.

   ..Dean/Smith.. 03/28/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

   LAT...LON   29739412 29959478 31329484 32049436 32289361 32179312
               31799290 31129297 30189296 29879309 29799370 29739412 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN