Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 273

   Mesoscale Discussion 0273
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1046 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of east TX and western LA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 281546Z - 281745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms are possible into this
   afternoon, with a threat of locally damaging gusts and possibly a
   tornado.

   DISCUSSION...Several northward moving cells/clusters are ongoing
   across east TX late this morning, to the east of a convectively
   enhanced midlevel shortwave trough moving slowly eastward across
   south TX. Area VWPs depict rather strong southerly low-level flow,
   with some low-level hodograph curvature implied where surface winds
   remain backed out of the southeast. MLCAPE may gradually increase
   near/above 500 J/kg into late morning and this afternoon, with
   continued storm development possible within the moist and uncapped
   environment. 

   While deep-layer shear will remain relatively modest, effective SRH
   of 100-200 m2/s2 will support occasional storm organization. Given
   the relatively favorable low-level shear/SRH and rich boundary-layer
   moisture, a tornado cannot be ruled out with any sustained cells,
   while locally damaging gusts will be possible with any stronger
   cells/clusters. 

   Watch issuance is unlikely in the short term due to the isolated
   nature of the threat, but trends will be monitored for the potential
   of stronger diurnal heating/destabilization and a locally greater
   threat into the afternoon.

   ..Dean/Smith.. 03/28/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

   LAT...LON   28909546 30769526 32039493 32459449 32289335 31929335
               31089320 30499319 30009323 29389344 29149377 28909546 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH