Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 272

   Mesoscale Discussion 0272
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0621 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

   Areas affected...northeastern Kansas and adjacent southern
   Nebraska/northwestern Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 272321Z - 280115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are undergoing a period of intensification
   which may persist at least through 8-9 PM CDT.  An upscale growing
   cluster accompanied by increasing potential for strong surface gusts
   is possible, in addition to a continuing risk for severe hail.

   DISCUSSION...Embedded within 20-30 kt west-southwesterly deep-layer
   mean flow, initially high-based thunderstorm development is
   undergoing intensification as it acquires more moist and potentially
   unstable southeasterly inflow near/northwest through north of Salina
   KS.  Mid/upper 50s F surface dew points, along and north of the
   Interstate 70 corridor into the Nebraska state border vicinity of
   northeastern Kansas, appear to be contributing to mixed-layer CAPE
   in excess of 2000 J/kg.  

   Although objective analysis and forecast soundings indicate the
   continuing presence of mid-level inhibition, forcing along
   convective outflow may maintain and perhaps support a further
   increase in convection through the 00-02Z time frame.  Coupled with
   strengthening low-level warm advection, aided by an intensifying
   low-level jet (30-50 kt around 850 mb), an upscale growing cluster
   with increasing potential to produce strong surface gusts might not
   be entirely out of the question into this evening.

   ..Kerr/Hart.. 03/27/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   39589793 39969709 40009602 39569456 38699482 38629633
               38609750 38859782 39589793 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN