Mesoscale Discussion 0271
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025
Areas affected...Parts of central/northern KS into extreme southeast
NE/northwest MO/southwest IA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 272051Z - 272245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms may develop by late
afternoon or early evening.
DISCUSSION...High-based cumulus is deepening this afternoon across
west-central KS, in the vicinity of a diffuse surface boundary. Some
increase in shallow cumulus has also been noted across northeast KS
into far southeast NE, where airmass recovery is underway in the
wake of morning convection.
In the short term, the greater chance for storm development may
reside within the very warm and well-mixed environment from
west-central into northern KS, in the vicinity of the surface
boundary where CINH is diminishing. Any development in this area
would be high-based, but MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg, steep
low/midlevel lapse rates, and modest effective shear (generally
25-30 kt) could support a few stronger storms capable of isolated
severe gusts and hail by early evening.
Farther northeast into northeast KS/southeast NE and vicinity, a
more favorable conditional environment may evolve by early evening,
with relatively backed flow, moderate deep-layer shear, and somewhat
richer boundary-layer moisture. However, in the absence of stronger
large-scale ascent, potential for surface-based storm development
within the initially capped environment is uncertain and could
remain relatively limited. Should robust convection develop in this
area, a supercell or two could evolve and pose an organized severe
threat.
Watch issuance is currently considered unlikely, due to the
potentially limited coverage of the severe threat across the region.
However, a watch would become increasingly possible if observational
trends begin to support development of multiple severe storms by
early evening.
..Dean/Smith.. 03/27/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...
LAT...LON 38800010 39399914 40539650 40939562 40889524 40609501
40409501 39959506 39579513 39159556 38389793 38099910
38069958 38159983 38469994 38800010
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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