Mesoscale Discussion 0270 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0936 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Areas affected...portions of the NORTHERN Gulf Coast states into west-central South Carolina. Concerning...Tornado Watch 63...65... Valid 161436Z - 161600Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 63, 65 continues. SUMMARY...Widespread strong thunderstorms remains ongoing this morning from parts of FL, across southern/southeastern GA and into west-central South Carolina. Strong wind fields and low-level shear will support a risk for damaging gusts, along with brief tornadoes. Some reintensification is possible with filtered diurnal heating. DISCUSSION...As of 1425 UTC,regional radar analysis showed a broad area of strong to severe thunderstorms ongoing over much of the northern Gulf Coast and southeast US States. Within the broader convective mass east of the advancing cold front, several more organized clusters have resolved; one across parts of the FL Panhandle into southwest GA, and another cluster near the SC/NC border. The environment downstream of this convection remains broadly favorable for severe storms with 500 J/kg of MLCAPE increasing to around 1500 J/kg farther south. With very strong wind fields, 45-55 kt of deep-layer shear is also present, favoring a mixed convective mode of supercell clusters and line segments. Given this storm mode and the strong kinematics in place, damaging winds remain the most probable threat. Strong 0-1km SRH of 200-300 m2/s2 from area VADs will support the potential for mainly embedded QLCS tornadoes, though some of the semi-discrete cells may pose a stronger tornado risk if they can remain discrete, particularly over parts of FL and southern GA. Given the favorable environment and ongoing convective coverage, the severe risk is likely to continue through much of the morning into the early afternoon. Additional reintensification of the convection, between the two more organized clusters already mentioned, is also possible as the environment remains supportive over the entire watch area. ..Lyons.. 03/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 29408525 29918528 30848472 31968349 32488267 33718163 33838157 34488063 34737991 34807951 34427935 33667990 32888014 32098103 31328150 30348224 29608305 29258428 29288460 29348501 29408525 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Source link