Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 270

   Mesoscale Discussion 0270
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0141 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

   Areas affected...far southern Texas / Lower Rio Grande Valley

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 271841Z - 272115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple strong gusts cannot be ruled out eventually over
   parts of the Lower Rio Grande Valley.

   DISCUSSION...A large, heavy-rain producing convective system
   continues to slowly propagate eastward, with newer development
   upstream into Mexico (see WPC MPD #0088). Midday soundings reveal
   deep, moist profiles with poor lapse rates and a high LFC. While the
   18Z BRO sounding shows winds veering with height and substantial 0-1
   SRH, the combination of poor low-level lapse rates and lack of any
   baroclinic boundary (outflow) thus far suggests little brief tornado
   risk. In addition, overall wind potential remains low as the deep
   moist profiles mitigate downdraft/evaporation potential. 

   Although radar indicates little outflow at this time, a few strong
   gusts may eventually be generated as heating persist. For any
   brief/QLCS type tornado potential, this appears highly conditional
   on a substantial outflow boundary first materializing.

   ..Jewell/Smith.. 03/27/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BRO...

   LAT...LON   26089895 26349865 26589849 26679815 26889783 27099759
               26929732 26389710 25989705 25829741 25879797 25959850
               26089895 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH