Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 265

   Mesoscale Discussion 0265
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1109 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025

   Areas affected...south-central into southeast Oklahoma to the Red
   River

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 260409Z - 260615Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms will increase in coverage, and
   sporadic marginally severe hail may occur.

   DISCUSSION...In the wake of the diurnally driven cluster hail event
   over North Texas, the air mass remains unstable with MUCAPE over
   1000 J/kg extending into south-central OK this evening. Showers and
   thunderstorms are already developing well north of the warm front
   into OK, and this trend should persist given modest southwest flow
   around 850 mb aiding theta-e advection. This zone of weak lift is
   not expected to move much over the next several hours. However, this
   is also near the midlevel temperature gradient, and as such, it
   should be relatively easy to get further storm development. While
   not as favorable an environment as farther south, at least isolated
   marginally severe hail is forecast.

   ..Jewell/Gleason.. 03/26/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35319798 34579571 34339511 34039472 33709484 33669644
               33829711 34079745 34619785 34879810 35139816 35319798 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN