Mesoscale Discussion 0264
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0847 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025
Areas affected...portions of north-central TX and far southern OK
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 260147Z - 260315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A few storms ongoing across north-central TX and southern
OK may persist into this evening with a continued risk for
occasional hail. These storms should begin to gradually weaken over
the next couple of hours. Additional storms later tonight may pose
an isolated risk for isolated hail and damaging winds, but the
magnitude of the threat remains unclear.
DISCUSSION...This evening, regional radar imagery showed a cluster
of splitting supercells had developed and produced occasional
reports of severe hail across parts of southern OK and the DFW
Metroplex. SPC mesoanalysis and the 00z FWD sounding show these
storms ongoing within a local bullseye of 1000-1500 J/kg and modest
effective shear sufficient for supercells. While not long-lived, and
limited by stronger inhibition east of DFW, a few of these storms
may persist for a couple more hours this evening before nocturnal
stabilization gradually results in weakening. Until then, the
stronger and more isolated updrafts will remain capable of
occasional severe hail, given the steep mid-level lapse rates and
supercell storm mode.
Farther north across the Red River Valley into southern OK, a second
round of storms may evolve as the nocturnal low-level jet
intensifies later tonight. Most guidance suggests a few elevated
storms could develop after 3-4z, and track southeastward across
southern OK and north-central/northeast TX. While it is unclear what
impact the ongoing storms may have on this more elevated regime,
modest deep-layer shear, and around 1000 J/kg of elevated MUCAPE
could support a localized hail threat later this evening.
..Lyons/Gleason.. 03/26/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 32599745 33169756 34149766 34619735 34519606 33879542
33519539 32949591 32359659 32339714 32599745
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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