Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 259

   Mesoscale Discussion 0259
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1114 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

   Areas affected...far northeastern Louisiana...southern
   Mississippi...and northern/central Alabama

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 60...

   Valid 160414Z - 160615Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 60 continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe threat continues within WW60.

   DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms continues eastward across the
   Gulf States this evening, producing occasional reports of damaging
   wind and small hail. Ahead of this line across southern Mississippi
   into central/northern Alabama, a favorable unstable and strongly
   sheared air mass remains in place with MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg
   and deep layer shear around 40 kts. This will be sufficient to allow
   for more organized line embedded mesovorticies that may produce
   damaging wind and tornadoes over the next few hours.

   Southward across southern MS/southern AL near the coast, occasional
   isolated showers and thunderstorms have been noted. Should a more
   discrete storm be able to get going within the open warm sector
   ahead of the main squall line, this may pose a somewhat greater risk
   for a tornado given more favorable moisture profiles with dew points
   in the upper 60s to 70s.

   ..Thornton.. 03/16/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   30969178 32898975 34058833 34308745 34128615 33908590
               32868636 30508884 30338953 30299087 30419154 30439163
               30969178 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN