Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 244

   Mesoscale Discussion 0244
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1231 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

   Areas affected...Arkansas...eastern Oklahoma...northeast Texas and
   northwestern Louisiana.

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 151731Z - 151900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Rapid severe thunderstorm development is expected early
   this afternoon from eastern OK into AR, northeast TX into northern
   LA. All hazards are possible with an eventual QLCS.

   DISCUSSION...As of 1730 UTC, regional satellite imagery showed
   initial ascent ahead of a potent shortwave trough was impinging upon
   the intersection of a cold front and weak dryline over parts of
   eastern OK and far southwest MO. Exceptionally strong mid-level
   ascent (8-10 cm/s observed from the SGF soundings) will overspread a
   rapidly warming/moistening air mass resulting in destabilization
   this afternoon.

   Rapid thunderstorm initiation is expected in the next couple of
   hours as ascent continues and the front impinges upon the plume of
   returning surface moisture. While modest, surface dewpoints in the
   low to mid 60s F amid steep mid-level lapse rates will support
   1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE. 50+ kt of deep-layer shear will favor
   storm organization with a mixed mode of supercells and line
   segments. The surging nature of the front suggests rapid upscale
   growth into a QLCS is also likely this afternoon before spreading
   eastward. Strong low and mid-level shear (ESRH 200-300 m2/s2) may
   still support embedded supercellular elements, along with QLCS
   circulations. Enhanced lower tropospheric flow of 30-50 kt is
   favorable for damaging gusts and embedded tornadoes. Hail is less
   certain, but will likely remain tied to more isolated initial
   semi-cellular development into parts of southwest AR and northwest
   LA/northeast TX.

   Observational trends and the latest CAM guidance show thunderstorms
   developing first along the most progressive portions of the cold
   front from far southern MO into far eastern OK and western AR.
   Additional development farther southwest may be somewhat more
   gradual as large-scale forcing for ascent is weaker and residual
   capping is likely to remain in place. With time, widespread
   thunderstorms should mature within a favorable CAPE/shear space,
   increasing the severe risk. Given this, one or more Tornado Watches
   are likely this afternoon.

   ..Lyons/Gleason.. 03/15/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

   LAT...LON   36439134 36009113 35609113 34289159 33649186 32629249
               32009320 31759418 31699550 32209573 32979555 34209502
               36079426 36459372 36499230 36439134 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN