Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2303

   Mesoscale Discussion 2303
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0317 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

   Areas affected...portions of northeastern LA and far western MS

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 720...

   Valid 282117Z - 282215Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 720 continues.

   SUMMARY...A maturing QLCS with a prominent bowing segment and
   several small supercells may pose an increasing threat for tornadoes
   and damaging gusts over the next couple of hours.

   DISCUSSION...As of 2110 UTC, local radar imagery showed a maturing
   QLCS across north-central LA. Within this intensifying line, a
   bowing segment/hybrid supercell structure has recently emerged over
   Natchitoches Parish. As upper-level forcing continuances to
   intensify with the approach of the upper-level trough, low-level
   wind fields have increased on area VADs. This is also evident in SPC
   mesoanalysis where a meso low has developed across southeastern AR
   with 2-3 mb/hr surface pressure falls.

   The QLCS should continue eastward into an unstable and strongly
   sheared air mass with 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 300-400 m2/s2 of
   ESRH. The environmental trends, along with a recent report of a 72
   mph wind gust, suggest damaging wind and QLCS tornado potential is
   increasing. Additionally, several small supercells east of the QLCS
   have developed stronger low-level mesocyclones over the last hour.
   As low-level shear intensifies, or storms interact with the surging
   line, the threat for tornadoes (including some strong) is expected
   to increase within this corridor from northeastern LA into far
   western MS.

   ..Lyons.. 12/28/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...

   LAT...LON   33349126 33229073 32979058 32409060 32139082 31519206
               31469267 31849279 33109209 33279158 33349126