Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2302

   Mesoscale Discussion 2302
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0134 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

   Areas affected...portions of eastern Texas into Louisiana...western
   Mississippi...and extreme southeastern Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 281934Z - 282100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...The anticipated primary round of severe storms is expected
   to take shape soon. A QLCS, likely preceded by supercells, with all
   severe hazards expected. Several EF0-EF2 tornadoes are anticipated,
   and a few intense (EF3+) tornadoes are likely. A particularly
   dangerous situation tornado watch will be issued within the next
   hour or so to address the increasing severe threat.

   DISCUSSION...A QLCS is gradually organizing across eastern TX,
   preceded by multiple supercells developing within confluence bands.
   So far, tornadoes have been the predominant observed severe hazard,
   with preliminary local storm reports suggesting that some of these
   tornadoes may have been strong. Mesoanalysis trends have shown a 70
   kt mid-level jet streak pivoting the trough and approaching the open
   warm sector, characterized by 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE (given 7 C/km
   mid-level lapse rates atop 70F surface dewpoints). As such, the 850
   mb low-level jet has already increased to 40 kts, with regional VADs
   beginning to show the first signs of low-level hodograph
   enlargement. 

   Trends of increasing low-level shear across the warm sector should
   continue into the evening hours ahead of the approaching QLCS and
   supercells. Damaging tornado potential should not only persist, but
   likely increase into the evening hours, both with the QLCS and
   preceding supercells. The most discrete, dominant warm-sector
   supercells will have the best potential to produce intense,
   potentially long-lived/long-tracked tornadoes. In consideration of
   the aforementioned significant tornado potential, a particularly
   dangerous situation tornado watch is likely within the next hour.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 12/28/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

   LAT...LON   30269465 31879331 33439123 33149048 32509034 31889034
               31149082 30479132 30169235 30069395 30269465