Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2300

   Mesoscale Discussion 2300
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1115 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

   Areas affected...portions of eastern AR and northwestern MS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 281715Z - 281815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated risk for large (some 2+ in) hail and damaging
   gusts may persist for a few hours this morning and early this
   afternoon. A more substantial severe threat is expected later today.

   DISCUSSION...As of 1710 UTC, regional radar analysis showed a
   cluster of strong to severe storms (including a more dominant
   supercell) ongoing across parts of far eastern AR. Likely elevated
   above the surface north of a well-defined baroclinic zone, these
   storms have produced a few reports of large hail over the past 2
   hours. Keeping with general storm motion to the east/northeast at
   30-35 kt, these storms should cross the MS river into northwestern
   MS in the next hour. The air mass here is weakly unstable (MLCAPE
   ~500 J/kg), but also strongly sheared, which should continue to
   support at least an isolated risk for severe hail and some damaging
   gust potential for a few more hours.

   A more substantial severe risk is expected to evolve later this
   afternoon as stronger forcing for ascent and linear storms approach
   from the west/southwest. Recent HRRR guidance and radar trends over
   the ArkLaTex suggests a larger QLCS/bowing line segment may approach
   and merge with this convection as the air mass across MS continues
   to destabilize. This would favor a greater severe risk, particularly
   for damaging gusts and tornadoes this afternoon/evening.

   Thus, while there remains an isolated severe risk over the next
   couple of hours, a WW is not expected until later this afternoon.

   ..Lyons/Hart.. 12/28/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

   LAT...LON   34499101 33759197 33569202 33409187 33269157 33129105
               33259030 33878936 34368952 34698987 34719073 34499101