Mesoscale Discussion 0230 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0535 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026 Areas affected...Parts of central/southern GA into the FL Panhandle and a small part of western SC Concerning...Tornado Watch 49... Valid 121035Z - 121200Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 49 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds and embedded brief tornadoes may continue to spread eastward through dawn. Downstream watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...A QLCS is moving across parts of GA and FL Panhandle as of 1030 UTC. Several embedded circulations and possible brief tornadoes have been noted over the last 1-2 hours, especially where discrete cells earlier merged into the line across far southeast AL into southwest GA. Downstream of this QLCS, increasing low-level flow has been noted from the KJGX and KVAX VWPs. This strengthening flow will continue to aid in low-level moisture transport along/ahead of the line. The gradually increasing downstream moisture and buoyancy, combined with ascent attendant to a fast-moving mid/upper-level shortwave trough, will help to sustain organized convection through dawn as the QLCS moves east-northeastward. The strongest surface pressure falls at 10 UTC were noted in advance of the north-south oriented portion of the line moving across west-central/southwest GA, with strong pressure rises noted in the wake of this section of the line. A corridor of somewhat greater wind-damage potential may accompany this portion of the line as it moves across central GA. Otherwise, at least locally damaging wind will remain possible along the length of the QLCS, with strong low-level flow/shear supporting embedded brief-tornado potential. The magnitude of destabilization into parts of eastern GA and SC remains uncertain, though if the QLCS remains organized, some potential for wind damage and brief tornadoes may eventually spread east of locally expanded WW 49. Downstream watch issuance is possible, depending on short-term observational trends. ..Dean/Mosier.. 03/12/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 32958390 33678347 34018253 33958179 33408170 32598189 31748243 30878341 30098432 29768492 29768541 29838576 30008586 30388582 30958486 31938411 32958390 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
Source link