US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 230

Published Date and Time: 2026-03-12 06:37:00



   Mesoscale Discussion 0230
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0535 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of central/southern GA into the FL Panhandle
   and a small part of western SC

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 49...

   Valid 121035Z - 121200Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 49 continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds and embedded brief tornadoes
   may continue to spread eastward through dawn. Downstream watch
   issuance is possible.

   DISCUSSION...A QLCS is moving across parts of GA and FL Panhandle as
   of 1030 UTC. Several embedded circulations and possible brief
   tornadoes have been noted over the last 1-2 hours, especially where
   discrete cells earlier merged into the line across far southeast AL
   into southwest GA. Downstream of this QLCS, increasing low-level
   flow has been noted from the KJGX and KVAX VWPs. This strengthening
   flow will continue to aid in low-level moisture transport
   along/ahead of the line. The gradually increasing downstream
   moisture and buoyancy, combined with ascent attendant to a
   fast-moving mid/upper-level shortwave trough, will help to sustain
   organized convection through dawn as the QLCS moves
   east-northeastward. 

   The strongest surface pressure falls at 10 UTC were noted in advance
   of the north-south oriented portion of the line moving across
   west-central/southwest GA, with strong pressure rises noted in the
   wake of this section of the line. A corridor of somewhat greater
   wind-damage potential may accompany this portion of the line as it
   moves across central GA. Otherwise, at least locally damaging wind
   will remain possible along the length of the QLCS, with strong
   low-level flow/shear supporting embedded brief-tornado potential. 

   The magnitude of destabilization into parts of eastern GA and SC
   remains uncertain, though if the QLCS remains organized, some
   potential for wind damage and brief tornadoes may eventually spread
   east of locally expanded WW 49. Downstream watch issuance is
   possible, depending on short-term observational trends.

   ..Dean/Mosier.. 03/12/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...

   LAT...LON   32958390 33678347 34018253 33958179 33408170 32598189
               31748243 30878341 30098432 29768492 29768541 29838576
               30008586 30388582 30958486 31938411 32958390 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH



Source link

Leave a Reply