Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2297

   Mesoscale Discussion 2297
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0838 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

   Areas affected...portions of central Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 281438Z - 281615Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across central portions of
   Texas. Severe wind and hail appear to be the predominant threats
   with the stronger storms that develop, though a tornado or two
   cannot be ruled out. A WW issuance may be needed in the next couple
   of hours.

   DISCUSSION...The boundary layer is expected to gradually warm
   through the morning (given diurnal heating), where upper 60s F
   surface dewpoints are in place. 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates and
   deep-layer ascent are overspreading central TX in tandem with the
   mid-level trough and associated 70-90 kt upper-level jet streak. As
   such, thunderstorms are already developing along a Bosque-Kendall
   County line ahead of the cold front, and they should continue to
   gradually organize/intensify further throughout the morning. 50+ kt
   effective bulk shear is already present over the warm sector, and
   shear (as well as boundary-layer based buoyancy) should only
   increase with time. 

   Supercells are possible within this developing band of storms, as
   well as with any storms that can develop and mature ahead of the
   line, as suggested by high-resolution model guidance. Given
   relatively steep lapse rates amid curved and elongated hodographs,
   severe hail and wind are likely with the stronger storms. Low-level
   hodographs are not particularly large (evident via the GRK VAD).
   However, given rich low-level moisture and strong deep-layer
   forcing/shear, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out, especially with
   any sustained supercell preceding the main line of storms. A WW
   issuance will likely be needed over the next hour or so.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 12/28/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...

   LAT...LON   30949556 30339580 30059667 29979765 29989837 30239858
               30909832 31469797 31779719 32019619 31929566 31539555
               30949556