Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2279

   Mesoscale Discussion 2279
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1044 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

   Areas affected...Northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 281644Z - 281845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for isolated hail (near 1 inch diameter) and
   wind damage will persist through about 19z across northeast Illinois
   into northwest Indiana.  A watch appears unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...A slightly elevated storm cluster with some supercell
   characteristics, and a history of 1 inch hail and some wind damage,
   continues to move east-northeastward at 50-55 kt across southern
   Livingston and northern Ford Cos. IL.  This storm cluster is
   tracking near the surface warm front, and appears to be associated
   with a subtle/embedded speed max approaching central/northern IL. 
   Modified short-term forecast soundings suggest the updrafts are
   rooted slightly above the surface near the warm front with surface
   temperatures in the low 60s, while somewhat larger surface-based
   CAPE is confined to areas a bit farther south with temperatures in
   the mid 60s.  Long hodographs/strong vertical shear will continue to
   support organized/supercell structures before the storms outpace the
   somewhat greater buoyancy in IL, but the overall hail/wind threat
   should be limited by rather poor low-midlevel lapse rates.  As such,
   a watch remains unlikely in the short term.

   ..Thompson/Gleason.. 12/28/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...

   LAT...LON   40928665 40768790 40788812 41018835 41188827 41478784
               41598736 41758682 41688642 41228631 40928665 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN