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| Mesoscale Discussion 2279 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 2279 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Areas affected...TX Coastal Plain into Southeast TX Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 712... Valid 250502Z - 250700Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 712 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated hail remains possible across much of the region. Some additional severe potential possible over the Middle Texas Coast and another watch may be needed. DISCUSSION...Complex convective evolution is underway from the TX Hill Country into Southeast TX as thunderstorms along the front begin to interact with prefrontal cellular/supercellular development. This interaction will likely lead to gradually diminishing storm strength across much of the region over the next hour or two. Until then, cellular prefrontal development across much of the region will likely remain strong to occasionally severe, supported by steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer vertical shear. The only exception is from Karnes/Dewitt Counties northeastward into Fayette County, where the strongest storms are currently ongoing. Here, downstream buoyancy may be high enough for storms to maintain surface-based character as the frontal interaction occurs, leading to upscale growth and a progressive convective line. Increasing large-scale ascent associated with the approaching shortwave trough could contribute to this evolution as well. The resulting convective line would likely push southeastward to the Middle TX Coast with an attendant threat for damaging gusts and isolated hail. Given this potential, a downstream watch may be needed shortly. ..Mosier/Gleason.. 12/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 29089526 28139647 27779736 27889779 29019816 30119763 31049618 31529462 31199385 30359412 29089526 |
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