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| Mesoscale Discussion 2278 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 2278 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0849 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Areas affected...Portions of central/southeast Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 712... Valid 250249Z - 250415Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 712 continues. SUMMARY...Large hail remains the primary concern across the southern portion of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 712 through at least 04Z. DISCUSSION...Latest radar data shows ongoing semi-discrete supercells tracking slowly east-southeastward along the pre-frontal confluence zone in central/southeast TX. The EWX VWP continues to sample around 35-40 kt of 0-6 km shear oriented mostly perpendicular to the low-level zone of ascent. This, combined with favorable buoyancy/steep midlevel lapse rates (see CRP 00Z sounding), will support the maintenance of these semi-discrete supercells. The primary risk with these storms continues to be large hail (generally up to 1.75 inches), though an isolated 2 inch hailstone cannot be ruled out. As midlevel height falls/large-scale ascent continues overspreading this activity ahead of a midlevel shortwave trough, storms may tend to grow upscale into a line, generally reducing the hail threat. Locally damaging gusts will still be possible, though increasing nocturnal static stability may lessen the threat to some extent. ..Weinman.. 12/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...EWX... LAT...LON 29219800 30499682 30539654 30259628 29749651 28949730 28939763 29029791 29219800 |
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